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Elaborating on Datadash's 50k BTC Prediction: Why We Endorse the Call
As originally published via CoinLive I am the Co-Founder at CoinLive. Prior to founding Coinlive.io, my area of expertise was inter-market analysis. I came across Datadash 50k BTC prediction this week, and I must take my hats off to what I believe is an excellent interpretation of the inter-connectivity of various markets. At your own convenience, you can find a sample of Intermarket analysis I've written in the past before immersing myself into cryptos full-time. Gold inter-market: 'Out of sync' with VIX, takes lead from USD/JPY USD/JPY inter-market: Watch divergence US-Japan yield spread EUUSD intermarket: US yields collapse amid supply environment Inter-market analysis: Risk back in vogue, but for how long? USD/JPY intermarket: Bulls need higher adj in 10-y US-JP spread The purpose of this article is to dive deeper into the factors Datadash presents in his video and how they can help us draw certain conclusions about the potential flows of capital into crypto markets and the need that will exist for a BTC ETF. Before I do so, as a brief explainer, let's touch on what exactly Intermarket analysis refers to: Intermarket analysis is the global interconnectivity between equities, bonds, currencies, commodities, and any other asset class; Global markets are an ever-evolving discounting and constant valuation mechanism and by studying their interconnectivity, we are much better positioned to explain and elaborate on why certain moves occur, future directions and gain insights on potential misalignments that the market may not have picked up on yet or might be ignoring/manipulating. While such interconnectivity has proven to be quite limiting when it comes to the value one can extract from analyzing traditional financial assets and the crypto market, Datadash has eloquently been able to build a hypothesis, which as an Intermarket analyst, I consider very valid, and that matches up my own views. Nicolas Merten constructs a scenario which leads him to believe that a Bitcoin ETF is coming. Let's explore this hypothesis. I will attempt to summarize and provide further clarity on why the current events in traditional asset classes, as described by Datadash, will inevitably result in a Bitcoin ETF. Make no mistake, Datadash's call for Bitcoin at 50k by the end of 2018 will be well justified once a BTC ETF is approved. While the timing is the most challenging part t get right, the end result won't vary. If one wishes to learn more about my personal views on why a BTC ETF is such a big deal, I encourage you to read my article from late March this year. Don't Be Misled by Low Liquidity/Volume - Fundamentals Never Stronger The first point Nicholas Merten makes is that despite depressed volume levels, the fundamentals are very sound. That, I must say, is a point I couldn't agree more. In fact, I recently wrote an article titled TheParadox: Bitcoin Keeps Selling as Intrinsic Value Set to Explode where I state "the latest developments in Bitcoin's technology makes it paradoxically an ever increasingly interesting investment proposition the cheaper it gets." However, no article better defines where we stand in terms of fundamentals than the one I wrote back on May 15th titled Find Out Why Institutions Will Flood the Bitcoin Market, where I look at the ever-growing list of evidence that shows why a new type of investors, the institutional ones, looks set to enter the market in mass. Nicholas believes that based on the supply of Bitcoin, the market capitalization can reach about $800b. He makes a case that with the fundamentals in bitcoin much stronger, it wouldn't be that hard to envision the market cap more than double from its most recent all-time high of more than $300b. Interest Rates Set to Rise Further First of all, one of the most immediate implications of higher rates is the increased difficulty to bear the costs by borrowers, which leads Nicholas to believe that banks the likes of Deutsche Bank will face a tough environment going forward. The CEO of the giant German lender has actually warned that second-quarter results would reflect a “revenue environment [that] remains challenging." Nicholas refers to the historical chart of Eurodollar LIBOR rates as illustrated below to strengthen the case that interest rates are set to follow an upward trajectory in the years to come as Central Banks continue to normalize monetary policies after a decade since the global financial crisis. I'd say, that is a correct assumption, although one must take into account the Italian crisis to be aware that a delay in higher European rates is a real possibility now. !(https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/947/content_2018-05-30_1100.png) Let's look at the following combinations: Fed Fund Rate Contract (green), German 2-year bond yields (black) and Italy's 10-year bond yield (blue) to help us clarify what's the outlook for interest rates both in Europe and the United States in the foreseeable future. The chart suggests that while the Federal Reserve remains on track to keep increasing interest rates at a gradual pace, there has been a sudden change in the outlook for European rates in the short-end of the curve. While the European Central Bank is no longer endorsing proactive policies as part of its long-standing QE narrative, President Mario Draghi is still not ready to communicate an exit strategy to its unconventional stimulus program due to protectionism threats in the euro-area, with Italy the latest nightmare episode. Until such major step is taken in the form of a formal QE conclusion, interest rates in the European Union will remain depressed; the latest drastic spike in Italy's benchmark bond yield to default levels is pre-emptive of lower rates for longer, an environment that on one hand may benefit the likes of Deutsche Bank on lower borrowing costs, but on the other hand, sets in motion a bigger headache as risk aversion is set to dominate financial markets, which leads to worse financial consequences such as loss of confidence and hence in equity valuations. !(https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/948/content_2018-05-30_1113.png) Deutsche Bank - End of the Road? Nicholas argues that as part of the re-restructuring process in Deutsche Bank, they will be facing a much more challenging environment as lending becomes more difficult on higher interest rates. At CoinLive, we still believe this to be a logical scenario to expect, even if a delay happens as the ECB tries to deal with the Italian political crisis which once again raises the question of whether or not Italy should be part of the EU. Reference to an article by Zerohedge is given, where it states: "One day after the WSJ reported that the biggest German bank is set to "decimate" its workforce, firing 10,000 workers or one in ten, this morning Deutsche Bank confirmed plans to cut thousands of jobs as part of new CEO Christian Sewing's restructuring and cost-cutting effort. The German bank said its headcount would fall “well below” 90,000, from just over 97,000. But the biggest gut punch to employee morale is that the bank would reduce headcount in its equities sales and trading business by about 25%." There is an undeniably ongoing phenomenon of a migration in job positions from traditional financial markets into blockchain, which as we have reported in the past, it appears to be a logical and rational step to be taken, especially in light of the new revenue streams the blockchain sector has to offer. Proof of that is the fact that Binance, a crypto exchange with around 200 employees and less than 1 year of operations has overcome Deutsche Bank, in total profits. What this communicates is that the opportunities to grow an institution’s revenue stream are formidable once they decide to integrate cryptocurrencies into their business models. One can find an illustration of Deutsche Bank's free-fall in prices below: !(https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/946/content_2018-05-30_1052.png) Nicholas takes notes of a chart in which one can clearly notice a worrying trend for Italian debt. "Just about every other major investor type has become a net seller (to the ECB) or a non-buyer of BTPs over the last couple of years. Said differently, for well over a year, the only marginal buyer of Italian bonds has been the ECB!", the team of Economists at Citi explained. One can find the article via ZeroHedge here. !(https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/953/content_2018-05-30_1451.png) Equities & Housing to Suffer the Consequences Nicholas notes that trillions of dollars need to exit these artificially-inflated equity markets. He even mentions a legendary investor such as George Soros, who has recently warned that the world could be on the brink of another devastating financial crisis, on lingering debt concerns in Europe and a strengthening US dollar, as a destabilizing factor for both the US's emerging- and developed-market rivals. Ray Dalio, another legend in the investing world and Founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge fund, "has ramped up its short positions in European equities in recent weeks, bringing their total value to an estimated $22 billion", MarketWatch reports. Nicholas extracts a chart by John Del Vecchio at lmtr.com where it illustrates the ratio between stocks and commodities at the lowest in over 50 years. As the author states: "I like to look for extremes in the markets. Extremes often pinpoint areas where returns can be higher and risk lower than in other time periods. Take the relationship between commodities and stocks. The chart below shows that commoditieshavennot been cheaper than stocks in a generation. We often hear this time it is different” to justify what’s going on in the world. But, one thing that never changes is human nature. People push markets to extremes. Then they revert. " !(https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/954/content_2018-05-30_1459.png) Bitcoin ETF the Holy Grail for a Cyclical Multi-Year Bull Run It is precisely from this last chart above that leads Nicholas to believe we are on the verge of a resurgence in commodity prices. Not only that but amid the need of all this capital to exit stocks and to a certain extent risky bonds (Italian), a new commodity-based digital currency ETF based on Bitcoin will emerge in 2018. The author of Datadash highlights the consideration to launching a Bitcoin ETF by the SEC. At CoinLive, our reporting of the subject can be found below: "Back in April, it was reported that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has put back on the table two Bitcoin ETF proposals, according to public documents. The agency is under formal proceedings to approve a rule change that would allow NYSE Arca to list two exchange-traded funds (ETFs) proposed by fund provider ProShares. The introduction of an ETF would make Bitcoin available to a much wider share of market participants, with the ability to directly buy the asset at the click of a button, essentially simplifying the current complexity that involves having to deal with all the cumbersome steps currently in place." Nicholas refers to the support the Bitcoin ETF has been receiving by the Cboe president Chris Concannon, which is a major positive development. CoinLive reported on the story back in late March, noting that "a Bitcoin ETF will without a doubt open the floodgates to an enormous tsunami of fresh capital entering the space, which based on the latest hints by Concannon, the willingness to keep pushing for it remains unabated as the evolution of digital assets keeps its course." It has been for quite some time CoinLive's conviction, now supported by no other than Nicholas Merten from Datadash, that over the next 6 months, markets will start factoring in the event of the year, that is, the approval of a Bitcoin ETF that will serve as a alternative vehicle to accommodate the massive flows of capital leaving some of the traditional asset classes. As Nicholas suggests, the SEC will have little choice but to provide alternative investments. Bitcoin as a Hedge to Lower Portfolios' Volatility Last but not least, crypto assets such as Bitcoin and the likes have an almost non-existent correlation to other traditional assets such as stocks, bonds, and commodities, which makes for a very attractive and broadly-applicable diversification strategy for the professional money as it reduces one’s portfolio volatility. The moment a Bitcoin ETF is confirmed, expect the non-correlation element of Bitcoin as a major driving force to attract further capital. Anyone Can BeWrongDatadash, But You Won't be Wrong Alone Having analyzed the hypothesis by Nicholas Merten, at CoinLive we believe that the conclusion reached, that is, the creation of a Bitcoin ETF that will provide shelter to a tsunami of capital motivated by the diversification and store of value appeal of Bitcoin, is the next logical step. As per the timing of it, we also anticipate, as Nicholas notes, that it will most likely be subject to the price action in traditional assets. Should equities and credit markets hold steady, it may result in a potential delay, whereas disruption in the capital market may see the need for a BTC ETF accelerate. Either scenario, we will conclude with a quote we wrote back in March. "It appears as though an ETF on Bitcoin is moving from a state of "If" to "When." Datadash is certainly not alone on his 50k call. BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes appears to think along the same line. On behalf of the CoinLive Team, we want to thank Nicholas Merten at Datadash for such enlightening insights.
Daily analysis of cryptocurrencies 20191128(Market index 32 — Fear state)
https://preview.redd.it/wfqjaht1zl141.jpg?width=1280&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0c7eadb39a877fcab6f3e510108e216ad8561c38 ECB Official Says Digital Currency Could Be An Alternative To CashSpeaking at a joint conference held by the European Central Bank and the National Bank of Belgium, outgoing executive board member Benoît Cœuré said a digital currency could ensure that citizens remain able to use central bank money even if cash is eventually no longer used.He added, “A digital currency of this sort could take a variety of forms, the benefits and costs of which the ECB and other central banks are currently investigating, being mindful of their broader consequences on financial intermediation.” However, he advocated for private companies to continue their own work in the space.“But potential central bank initiatives should not discourage or crowd out private market-led solutions for fast and efficient retail payments in the euro area,” he said. Security Firm: All UPbit Stolen Crypto Assets Transferred, First-Phase Transfers Adopted To Disturb MonitoringMonitored by Beijing-based blockchain security firm Chainsguard, at 07:09 UTC on Nov 28, the stolen assets of UPbit were transferred to three addresses in the multistep amounts of 10, 1,000, 10,000 and 100,000, respectively. At 08:55, the last transfer that involves 109,270.16 ETH was finished. In the course of transfers, 100 ETH from each address, totaled 300 ETH, flowed into the address which first received the stolen fund. In the meantime, the attacker is carrying out the transfer test by moving fractional coins.Judging from the behavior, the attacker is implementing the first phase of transfers to perturb the monitoring. Furthermore, a good deal of ETH-based fractional amounts, as well as multiple ERC20 tokens, were sent to the address held by the attacker, together contributing to interfering the trace of lost assets. Robinhood Withdraws Bank Charter ApplicationRobinhood is pulling its bank charter application with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), highlighting the difficulties that tech startups experience when they try to enter the banking industry.A Robinhood spokesperson told CNBC that the withdrawal was voluntary. “Robinhood will continue to focus on increasing participation in the financial system and challenging the industry to better serve everyone,” the spokesperson said. “We appreciate the efforts and collaboration of all the parties we worked with throughout this process.” Yesterday, we saw a nice recovery wave in bitcoin above the $7,200 resistance against the US Dollar. However, BTC price struggled to climb above the $7,375 and $7,400 resistance levels. Later, there was a minor downside correction, but the price remains well bid above the $7,000 level. As a result, there was a fresh increase above the $7,200 resistance. Moreover, the price surpassed yesterday’s bullish flag resistance at $7,100 on the hourly chart. It opened the doors for an upside break above the key $7,375 and $7,400 resistance levels. Bitcoin price even rallied above the $7,500 resistance and traded close to the next key resistance near $7,700 (as pointed out in the weekly forecast). A high was formed near $7,676 and the price is currently correcting lower. Review previous articles:https://email@example.com
Encrypted project calendar（November 28, 2019）
Horizen (ZEN):28 November 2019 Weekly Insider Team updates at 3:30 PM UTC/ 11:30 AM EDT: Engineering, Node network, Product/UX, Helpdesk, Legal, BD, Marketing, CEO Closing thoughts, AMA.IOTA (MIOTA):28 November 2019 London Meetup “Healthcare Professional Interest Network: Is AI the end of Healthcare?” meetup in London from 18:30–21:30 (GMT).Aeternity (AE):28 November 2019 Vienna Workshop “Come learn more about AE’s functional language Sophia and layer-1 oracles and state channels.”Honest (HNST)and 1 other; 28 November 2019 Telegram AMA “Book your date for Honest Mining AMA with@vexanium, November 28th, 2019 on Honest Mining Telegram Group and Vexanium Telegram Group.”Waves (WAVES);28 November 2019 AMA with Sasha Ivanov “This Thursday Nov 28 we’re hosting a live-streamed AMA with Sasha Ivanov to discuss where Waves stands and where we’re heading in 2020.”
Encrypted project calendar（November 29, 2019）
Zenon (ZNN):29 November 2019 Awareness Fund Payout “Distribution of the fund takes place every Friday until Pillars Lock-in Phase is completed.”Tael (WABI);29 November 2019 Founders AMA “Three days to go until our Founders #AMA, this Friday, hosted by@binance.”
Encrypted project calendar（November 30, 2019）
Ethos (ETHOS):30 November 2019 (or earlier) Rebranding “In November, we unveil the broker token, a dynamic utility token to power our commission-free crypto trading and broker platform, Voyager.”Digitex Futures (DGTX):30 November 2019 Public Testnet Launch “…We can expect to see the world’s first zero-commission futures trading platform live on the Ethereum public testnet from 30th November.”Monero (XMR):30 November 2019 Protocol Upgrade “Preliminary information thread regarding the scheduled protocol upgrade of November 30.”Chiliz (CHZ):30 November 2019 (or earlier) Fiat to CHZ Exchanges “We will add another two fiat to $CHZ exchanges in November…”Skrumble Network (SKM):30 November 2019 (or earlier) P2P & Group Calling “P2P & Group Video Calling,” during November 2019.Aergo (AERGO):30 November 2019 (or earlier) Mainnet 2.0 Upgrade Mainnet 2.0 Protocol update by end of November.Akropolis (AKRO):30 November 2019 (or earlier) Beta Release “All functionality has been deployed to mainnet.”Nash Exchange (NEX):30 November 2019 (or earlier) Mobile Strategy Phase 2 “Phase 2 of our mobile strategy will be live soon with our wallet and portfolio app hitting stores in November!”Akropolis (AKRO):30 November 2019 (or earlier) Beta Release “All functionality has been deployed to mainnet.”Pakcoin (PAK):30 November 2019 Staking Mobile App Android app for staklet is going to be launched on November 30th.
Encrypted project calendar（December 1, 2019）
Auxilium (AUX):01 December 2019 AUX Interest Distribution Monthly interest distribution by Auxilium Interest Distribution Platform for coinholders. Also supports charity.I/O Coin (IOC):01 December 2019 Pos Reward Halving IOC block reward halving is happening on December 1st 2019.ABBC Coin (ABBC)01 December 2019 Migration Requests Start “Migration requests from the #AladdinPro Wallet will be accepted starting on December 1, 2019.”
Encrypted project calendar（December 2, 2019）
Bitcoin (BTC):02 December 2019 CME Futures BTCX19 Bitcoin Futures Contract (BTCX19) settles on December 02, 2019.Waves (WAVES):02 December 2019 Waves Exchange Launch “As of November 18, users will be able to import their accounts and seed phrases, and, on December 2, the new exchange will be launched.”BZLCOIN (BZL):02 December 2019 New Website New website and pre-launch “Patron”.Decentraland (MANA):02 December 2019 Creator Contest “Announcing the Creator Contest, from Dec 2–15. Submit your most creative interactive scenes for a share of $50k USD worth of prizes up.”Bitcoin (BTC);02 December 2019 CME Futures BTCX19 Bitcoin Futures Contract (BTCX19) settles on December 02, 2019.
Encrypted project calendar（December 3, 2019）
Aeternity (AE):03 December 2019 Sofia, Bulgaria Meetup “Come hear@noyyyand@emintroducing the project, followed by talks by Karol Skočik, Juraj Hlista, and Stephan Verbücheln.”Quant (QNT)03 December 2019 QuantX London Conference “QuantX is a half-day event being curated by Quant Network with an audience of 100 industry professionals from across the fintech…”
Encrypted project calendar（December 4, 2019）
Aeternity (AE)04 December 2019 Sofia Hackathon “The next aeternity blockchain hackathon will be held in Sofia, Bulgaria, on December 4th, 2019!”
Encrypted project calendar（December 5, 2019）
***OKB (OKB)：***05 December 2019 OKEx Cryptour Kyiv Ukr “Join us in Kyiv as we journey through Ukraine for our OKEx Cryptour!”Horizen (ZEN)05 December 2019 Weekly Insider Team updates at 4:30 PM UTC/ 11:30 AM EDT: Engineering, Node network, Product/UX, Helpdesk, Legal, BD, Marketing, CEO Closing thoughts, AMA.
Encrypted project calendar（December 6, 2019）
TenX (PAY):06 December 2019 COMIT Hackathon “The #hackathon will be held over the weekend of 6–8 Dec at the TenX HQ in Singapore.”Noah Coin (NOAH)06 December 2019 Japan Roadshow — Sendai “As you know, we are organizing the trip to the cities of Japan in December.”
Encrypted project calendar（December 7, 2019）
Storm (STORM):07 December 2019 Loyalty Program Registration for our fourth and last loyalty program will end on December 7th!MediBloc [ERC20] (MEDX):07 December 2019 Token Swap Deadline “Please submit your swap before 7th of December 23:59(UTC+9).”OKB (OKB);07 December 2019 OKEx Talks 2019 Calabar “Join us on 7 Dec for our first OKExTalks in Calabar, where we will be discussing ‘Digital Assets and Tokenization’.”Dash (DASH);07 December 2019 Open House “.. Dash Core Group will be hosting the Dash Evolution Open House on Dec 7th… in Scottsdale, AZ, from 1pm to 5pm MST.”Noah Coin (NOAH);07 December 2019 Japan Roadshow — Tokyo “As you know, we are organizing the trip to the cities of Japan in December.”
Encrypted project calendar（December 8, 2019）
Noah Coin (NOAH)08 December 2019 Japan Roadshow — Nagoya “As you know, we are organizing the trip to the cities of Japan in December.”
Encrypted project calendar（December 10, 2019）
OKB (OKB)10 December 2019 OKEx Talks — Rotterdam “Join us on 10 Dec to explore “Decentralized Finance” & the benefits & opportunities it presents.”.Newscrypto.io (NWC)10 December 2019 (or earlier) Platform Redesign Updates: Brand new Landing page, New Trading Tools and Updated School Program.IOTA (MIOTA)10 December 2019 Karlsruhe Meetup “Come learn about the IOTA technology! Dec 10 at 6PM CEST.”OKB (OKB)10 December 2019 OKEx Talks — Rotterdam “Join us on 10 Dec to explore “Decentralized Finance” & the benefits & opportunities it presents.”.Newscrypto.io (NWC)10 December 2019 (or earlier) Platform Redesign Updates: Brand new Landing page, New Trading Tools and Updated School Program.
Encrypted project calendar（December 11, 2019）
Waves (WAVES)11 December 2019 Annual Meetup ‘See you in Berlin on December 11, 2019!”Cindicator (CND)11 December 2019 Event for CND Ecosystem “New horizons of the CND ecosystem,” with “More details to be released” at 14:00 UTC.IOTA (MIOTA)11 December 2019 Berlin Meetup “Join us for the “2019 recap & 2020 outlook” MeetUp, organized by IOTA &@iotashop.”Cosmos (ATOM)11 December 2019 Cosmos Hub 3 Chain “Cosmonauts, buckle up & get ready for the hub upgrade to the Cosmos Hub 3 chain. A new proposed date is set for Dec 11 at…” .
Wells Fargo – Federal Reserve said it is restricting the bank's size in response to "widespread consumer abuses." Wells Fargo said it will replace four board members, three by April. The bank's shares were downgraded by at least five firms on Monday, including JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Morgan Stanley.
Broadcom – Broadcom raised its takeover offer for rival chipmaker Qualcomm to $82 per share, consisting of $60 per share in cash and the rest in stock. Broadcom is calling this bid its "best and final offer."
Bristol-Myers Squibb – The drugmaker reported adjusted quarterly profit of 68 cents per share, one cent a share above estimates. Revenue also beat forecasts and the company announced that its cancer drug Opdivo has been approved for use in patients with a certain type of melanoma. The company also did well in clinical trials as part of a combination treatment with certain lung cancer patients.
Boeing – Boeing may be interested in bidding for a Canada jet fighter contract despite the ongoing trade dispute involving Canada's Bombardier, according to a senior executive. Boeing has until February 9 to decide to bid. Separately, UPS placed an order for 14 747-8 freighters, easing doubts about that aircraft's future.
Equifax — The probe of Equifax has been pulled back, according to Reuters quoting people familiar with the matter. Former consumer protection bureau head Richard Cordray is said to have authorized an investigation of Equifax's massive data breach, which it revealed in September, but Reuters reports the probe has sputtered under current head Mick Mulvaney.
Amazon.com – Amazon has settled its tax dispute with France, according to reports out of Europe, although terms were not disclosed. France had claimed Amazon owed nearly $250 million in back taxes and penalties.
Pfizer – Pfizer has gotten only two bids for its consumer unit, according to a Bloomberg report. GlaxoSmithKline and Reckitt Benckiser are the only companies to bid, with rival candidates having walked away. Analysts say the unit could be worth between $15 billion and $20 billion.
Lowe's – Lowe's was upgraded to "buy" from "hold" at Jefferies, which also called the home improvement retailer's stock its "franchise pick" for 2018. Jefferies thinks Lowe's can triple its earnings per share over the next five years, thanks to changes that will close profit and productivity gaps with competitors.
Charter Communications – The cable and broadband provider was upgraded to "outperform" from "market perform" at Wells Fargo, which said it has renewed confidence in a successful turnaround after the company's last earnings call, despite a tough competitive environment.
Church & Dwight – The maker of Arm & Hammer baking soda and numerous other consumer products reported adjusted quarterly profit of 52 cents per share, 2 cents a share above estimates. Revenue beat forecasts, as well. The company also raised its quarterly dividend by 14% to 21.75 cents per share.
bigbear0083 has no positions in any stocks mentioned. Reddit, moderators, and the author do not advise making investment decisions based on discussion in these posts. Analysis is not subject to validation and users take action at their own risk. bigbear0083 is an admin at the financial forums Stockaholics.net where this content was originally posted.
What is on everyone's radar for today's trading day ahead here at StockMarket?
I hope you all have an excellent trading day ahead today on this Monday, February 5th, 2018! :)
10/19: Jeff Berwick outlines in the Dollar Vigilante the New Crypto Order including: XBT, ETH, EOS and the US$ debt transfer.
I’ve said it before and I have to say it again. I am shocked at how fast everything is moving. When we started The Dollar Vigilante in 2010 we only wrote one issue per month and each month I’d have to think quite hard about the important issues to cover. There just wasn’t that much happening on a month to month basis. Now, I have to literally filter through dozens of important things that have just occurred and try to select a few of them to focus on or this newsletter would be 100+ pages long. The crypto space has become an entire topic on its own with so much happening that we are looking to bring on even more people onto the TDV team with a focus on cryptos, ICOs and trading. This will likely result in an add-on newsletter to TDV because just covering this space alone is worth 50 pages per month in research and analysis (I’ll briefly mention a number of interesting developments further below though). Stay tuned for more on that. In the bitcoin space alone, ignoring all the other cryptos & ICOs, so much has occurred in just the last month. The criminal Chinese government shut down three of the world’s largest exchanges and banned ICOs. JPMorgan has been attacking bitcoin as a fraud - which is laughable coming from that bunch. And the New York Agreement signatories proceeded further with the scheduled SegWit2x hard fork (which Juan Galt will cover in depth in this issue). You’d think with all that happening and the uncertainty surrounding yet another bitcoin fork it would have seriously hurt the price of bitcoin. Nope, bitcoin nearly doubled in the last month. Bitcoin just don’t care. BITCOIN HITS ALL-TIME HIGHS NEAR $6,000 As I write, bitcoin is trading at $5600 after hitting a new all-time high of $5,844.18 on Sunday. For the last three months I mentioned numerous times that I liked the short term prospects of bitcoin over the entire cryptocurrency space as a whole. And that has turned out to be correct as bitcoin has risen from a low of 37.82% dominance in the sector in June to 54.45% now. The total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies excluding bitcoin has fallen from $97 billion at the beginning of September to $79 billion today. Meanwhile, bitcoin itself currently sits near $94 billion in market cap. It was only one year ago today that bitcoin had a market cap of just over $10 billion meaning it has increased nearly 1,000% in the last year in both market cap and price. Not a bad year! I recall many TDV subscribers lamenting how they had missed out on bitcoin after it had skyrocketed to $150 in 2013 after starting the year near $15. I said then that it was definitely not too late to get in. The same happened after bitcoin surged through $1,000. And, I said the same, “it’s not too late.” When bitcoin hit $3,000 I said the same. With it now near $6,000 I am telling you it is not too late. Here’s the main reason: This is a chart of the money supply or value of gold, bitcoin, Chinese yuan, Japanese yen, euro and the US dollar. You’ll notice one stands out as being miniscule. Bitcoin. Gold is the next closest to bitcoin with a total value of approximately $7 trillion. If bitcoin, which many including myself consider to be the digital version of gold were to one day be valued the same as gold it would have to rise 80x to a value, in today’s dollars, of over $450,000. If bitcoin were ever to supplant the US dollar as a currency it’d have to rise nearly two-fold above that, for nearly $1 million per bitcoin. Will it ever get there? Well, there is absolutely no way to know. And, if it does, it will take a long while. Does it have the potential? Yes, absolutely. If we continue to live in a digital world and the fiat currencies of the world’s most indebted and bankrupt companies return to their intrinsic value of $0, then bitcoin would be the frontrunner to become the new world currency even more than gold due to all of its ease of use benefits. It’s not going to get there without a fight though. And I expect nothing but volatility, crisis and chaos in the years ahead. But consider the fact that there are only a total of 21 million bitcoins that will ever be available. Some data shows that there are over 15 million millionaires in the world today. What if each one of them wanted to own just two bitcoins. There wouldn’t be enough. And what if many of those millionaires begin to realize the entire fiat currency system was on the verge of collapse? The panic buying that would ensue would rise bitcoin, and to a lesser extent gold, to levels so high that sellers would eventually stop accepting fiat currencies whatsoever in exchange for bitcoin. That’s where we could be headed. In the meantime, though, with a rise of 1,000% in the last year a sizeable pullback is clearly possible. Will it happen anytime soon? Truthfully, everything I am seeing says no. Bitcoin, which once was just known by a few of us crazy people here around The Dollar Vigilante is now talked about at every level of business, banking and politics across the world… and a lot of the conversation is, “How do we get some?” And, did I mention, the entire cryptocurrency space is moving forward at light speed. BLOCKCHAIN TECHNOLOGY ERUPTS Considering I was one of the only people talking about blockchain about three years ago it is incredible to see the speed in which this technology is accelerating. Russia has flip flopped on bitcoin countless times now and has just announced it will be r eleasing its own CryptoRuble (CR). Of course, it will be nothing like bitcoin as it cannot be mined and will be issued and controlled by the Russian mafia (government). CR can be exchanged for regular Rubles at any time — however, if the holder is unable to explain the origin of the CR then a 13% extortion tax will be levied. China may be following in Russia’s footsteps as the Director of the Digital Currency Research Institute under the People’s Bank of China hinted towards the creation of a state-backed cryptocurrency. I expect most fiat currencies to become digital over time which will make most people accustomed to using digital currencies… from there it is only a click away to trade in or out of bitcoin and the myriad of other decentralized cryptocurrencies. Coinshares, the issuer behind the world’s first Bitcoin Exchange Traded Note (ETN), has announced that they will be launching the world’s first Ether ETN on the Nasdaq Stockholm. The Dubai Land Department — the government arm responsible for the registration and organization of real estate in the emirate — is now processing and implementing all real estate transactions on a blockchain, with the ultimate goal to have all Dubai properties recorded on a blockchain within the next 2-3 years. This is one area in which I have no trouble with the government using blockchain technology: in the recording of property rights and activities. It will, over time, make government unnecessary in such activities and will enable the economy to transact with more trust and less expense in the form of lawyers. Vitalik Buterin, the founder of Ethereum, has confirmed that 63% of central banks are working with Ethereum. Moreover, 44% of public institutions and 50,000 developers are building applications on the platform. IBM has announced a partnership with Stellar Lumens , a blockchain-based payment processing company, to move money across borders throughout the South Pacific. Merchants and consumers will be able to send money to another country in near real-time, accelerating a payments process that typically takes days. IBM hopes to use the blockchain network to process up to 60% of all cross-border payments in the South Pacific’s retail foreign exchange corridors by early 2018. The Stellar Lumens coin appreciated 150% after the announcement. Basecoin, a form of stable coin, has attracted investment from some of Silicon Valley’s largest funds including 1confirmation, Andreessen Horowitz, Bain Capital Ventures, Digital Currency Group, MetaStable Capital, Pantera Capital and PolyChain Capital. Basecoin is lauded by investors for its unique approach to what's been called the "holy grail" of cryptocurrency – a digital asset able to keep its value free from volatility. The basecoin protocol can be pegged to the value of any asset or basket of assets, dynamically adjusting its market price through the creative use of a combination of tokens. Grid+, the blockchain-based company aiming to provide consumers with direct access to wholesale energy markets, has partnered with Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO), Japan’s largest energy utility. TEPCO aims to leverage its partnership to learn about the potential benefits of Ethereum for decentralizing the exchange of energy, while Grid+ hopes to learn how to refine its algorithms to purchase cheaper energy. Winding Tree, a decentralized market for travel booking, has announced a partnership with Lufthansa, the largest German airline. The Winding Tree ICO starts on November 1. And, Overstock CEO Patrick Byrne has confirmed that his security token exchange, tZERO, will be pursuing an ICO sometime before Thanksgiving. Byrne suggested that the ICO could raise as much as $500m, which would be double the record for an ICO raise. I interviewed Patrick Byrne on Anarchast last month. You can see that here. And, Vanuatu this month announced that it will accept bitcoin in exchange for citizenship— 44 bitcoin to be exact . And we barely mentioned any of the ICO news. That’s a whole other area on its own. I wanted to post this chart, though, of the main ICO’s return to date. As can be seen, buying a small amount of certain ICOs, which have had returns of 10x, 100x and even 1,000x can be very profitable but you do need to be careful. We’ll continue to cover them here and are increasing our research and analysis resources dramatically to do so. UPDATE ON EOS Speaking of ICOs we have had a rough start with EOS which unfortunately, at the moment, is on the right side (loss side) of the above chart. Many subscribers asked me to interview Dan Larimer again and, as I always try to do, I obliged. This interview is exclusive to subscribers for the next 48 hours and then we will put it live to the public. Here is the video . *This video was also livestreamed on the TDV subscribers only Facebook Group here . Due to many things happening so quickly we don’t have time to even email out alerts like this but try to post if we can in the FB group. I realize some people don’t like FBIbook for obvious reasons but even just having a sock (fake) account set-up to access the group gets you access to a lot of valuable realtime info. To summarize, Dan believes the drop in the price of EOS isn’t due to their long ICO period but mostly attributable to the Chinese ban on ICOs. According to Dan, 50% of buying was coming from China. I’ve seen a number of people on the internet and even amongst subscribers questioning EOS. That is fairly normal. I was one of the only people in the world lauding bitcoin at $3 in 2011 and still to this day people say it is a scam, a ponzi scheme or a fraud. I obviously stopped listening to them a long time ago. When I first featured Ethereum in January 2016 near $2 there was a lot of criticism… and while it did rise to the $10 level fairly quickly afterwards it plateaued there for nearly a year bringing out a lot of catcalls about how it was dead. It wasn’t. So, with EOS, it has gotten off to a rocky start but it is also very early stage… and I have said that. However, by the time it is launched in June the price will likely be dramatically higher. So, you can wait and pay more later when the world realizes what a huge advance it is or you can get in early and take a few lumps waiting for the market to realize its value. Dan Larimer outlined a lot of good information on EOS in our interview but afterwards, off the record, he went into detail on many of the projects they are working on… and I can tell you, they have ‘world changing” written all over them. The market doesn’t know or realize a lot of it. And EOS has an absolutely massive bankroll, in the hundreds of millions of dollars, to bring all their projects (which are all related to or linked with EOS) to market. And Dan has an amazing vision. He understands what the market needs and wants - which is often a downfall of most techies - and knows how to get there. He announced this week in the official Telegram channel that EOS will be the first blockchain with unprecedented sub-second block times of 500 milliseconds and sub-second last irreversible block (LIB) providing finality. In other words, the time between a user sending a transaction or a command and being included in the blockchain could be consistently under a second compared to 10 minutes on Bitcoin. So, with a market capitalization of $400 million currently - and a bankroll of almost the same amount - to me this is a no brainer lottery ticket. Sure, like any new product it may fail. But, it may also succeed… and has a good chance of doing so in my opinion. And, if it does, we’ll laugh at how cheap it currently is for the opportunity. In other words, stick with it and if you bought earlier at higher levels look to average down. SUMMING UP THE CRYPTO SPACE Like I said, A LOT is going on in the crypto space. It isn’t going to go away overnight no matter how many times Peter Schiff says it will. Make sure to stick with us here at The Dollar Vigilante, the only financial newsletter in the world that has covered bitcoin and cryptos since 2011. Still to this day most financial newsletters don’t even cover this space… or even avoid it. Their, and their subscribers, loss. Keep this in mind with bitcoin, too. Since bitcoin was launched in 2009 it has actually been in a near-state of hyperinflation… a type of hyperinflation that was necessary in order to widely distribute the coins. That time of high inflation is nearly over just as quite a large part of the world is just waking up to bitcoin. What happens when increased demand meets decreasing supply? I think we all know the answer to that basic economics question. OTHER EVENTS So many other things have happened in the last two weeks but we only have so much time and mindspace to cover it all. I didn’t even touch on what was quite obviously a false flag in Las Vegas. All the typical 9/11 type scenarios have occurred along with a storyline from the LameStream Media and the government that make zero sense. Insiders sold stock of MGM prior to the event? Check . A surge in buying in ammunition starting on 9/11 leading up to the event? Check. Eyewitness to multiple shooters dead? Check . Predictive programming? Check… as I’ll outline here. It is well known by many that Hollywood and the music industry are largely controlled by elites. In fact it also well known that many popular stars are used for predictive programming purposes to influence the opinions of the masses. It appears as if country singer Jason Aldean is one of these celebrities that is being used to convey subliminal messages along with others. As we have come to learn, many of the nefarious plots that are planned by elites are planned decades in advance if not scores of years. With that in mind, there exists an Illuminati card game that contains a “Las Vegas” card. On this card are depicted a jack and ace, something you might see in a game of black jack, along with a picture of a sun. The game created in 1996 has predicted multiple false flags and operations carried out by the elite including the Pentagon blowing up and 9/11. In blackjack, the jack has the value “10” the ace has the value 1 or 11. In this case, it appears the symbology used on this card is conveying that the value of this ace is “1” - A is the first letter of the alphabet and in numerology - which the elites strongly believe in - it has the value “1”. So when you put the two values together you end up with 10/1 - the same day the Las Vegas shooting occurred. Coincidence? Well, if that was all coincidence, which it very likely wasn’t, what’s more, is that Jason Aldean has a nearly identical tattoo that depicts a jack and ace plus his initials are also “JA” the same exact letters. Also, Aldean has a picture of a black sun in the same tattoo. Likewise, sun symbology is heavily used on Jason’s website and album cover artwork. As many of our enlightened readers probably know, the sun is worshiped by many secret societies, perhaps most famously, the freemasons. Remember, this game has existed for more than 20 years. So, the Las Vegas shooting has probably been years in the making. Just take a look at what went on with MK Ultra and the history of such government operations such as Project Mockingbird. This kind of manipulation has been going on for a long time. Another one of Jason’s tattoos is a black cross depicting a red star - a pentagram - in the center of it. And as many people know, many of the Illuminati elites worship satan or have Luciferian beliefs of some kind. And, I didn’t even mention the location of the event, right in front of the giant black pyramid and numerous occult symbology… I get into this in a soon to be released Anarchast episode with Mark Passio. Just remember nothing happens by accident. Same ol’, same ol’. If there is one heartening thing I’ve noticed is that a lot more people are questioning these events. Ten years ago when I was adamant that 9/11 was an inside job false flag death ritual most people thought I was crazy. Now, many agree. And now, many are questioning these events… a positive in my opinion. CONCLUSION What will occur in the next two weeks prior to our next issue? I think it’s a safe bet to say “lots”. So far we have made it through September and halfway through October with no market crash. As I write the Dow we just crossed 23,000. The number 23 is quite an occult number . Could the powers behind the scene be targeting 23,000 before a planned crash? We’ll have to wait and see. As you’ll see below, though, Ed Bugos is not giving up on “the big short.” I’ll be in Austin for the Texas Bitcoin Conference on October 28th and 29th. You can get a discount to the conference by using the code “Anarchast”. And then I’ll be going to Lisbon, Portugal for Steemfest from November 1st to 5th. And, of course, don’t forget about Anarchapulco from February 15-17th, then Cryptopulco on February 18th and the TDV Internationalization & Investment Summit on February 19th! For those mostly interested in cryptocurrency, finance and investment, Cryptopulco and the TDV Summit the next day are the events to go to. You can check out the websites to see all the amazing speakers lined up including Trace Mayer, Roger Ver, Bruce Fenton, Dan Larimer and many, many others. And, unlike many other conferences most of the speakers will be around the entire week, and often poolside, where you can casually chat. That also includes myself, Ed Bugos, Juan Galt, Luis Fernando Mises and the rest of the team from TDV. Phew. So much going on… but we are happy to be one of your trusted sources to help you survive and prosper through it all. Thank you for that! And thank you for subscribing! Jeff Berwick
"Great minds discuss ideas; average minds discuss events; small minds discuss people." can we please stop this culture of bashing or lifting cults of personality and get back to science? (807 points, 143 comments)
Just paid 23 cents on a $3.74 transaction. When does it end? $1.00 per transaction? $2? $5? I don't wanna stop using this peer to peer currency, but I'm fast being priced out of it. (896 points, 1017 comments)
340 points: Vaultoro's comment in Just paid 23 cents on a $3.74 transaction. When does it end? $1.00 per transaction? $2? $5? I don't wanna stop using this peer to peer currency, but I'm fast being priced out of it.
323 points: jamesdpitley's comment in "R.I.P. Bitcoin. It's Time to Move On"....funny billboard driving around in Miami
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